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ABSTRACT A new coronavirus denominated first 2019-nCoV and later SARS-CoV-2 was found in Wuhan, China in December of 2019. This paper compares three mathematical methods: nonlinear regression, SIR, and SEIR epidemic models, to track the covid-19 disease in nine countries affected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, to help epidemiologists to know the disease trajectory, considering initial data in the pandemic, mainly 100 days from the beginning. To evaluate the results obtained with the three methods one-way ANOVA is applied. The average of predicted infected cases with SARS-CoV-2, obtained with the mentioned methods was: for United States of America 1,098,508, followed by Spain with 226,721, Italy with 202,953, France with 183,897 United Kingdom with 182,190, Germany with 159,407, Canada with 58,696, Mexico with 50,366 and Argentina with 4,860 in average. The one-way ANOVA does not show a significant difference among the results of the projected infected cases by SARS-CoV-2, using nonlinear regression, SIR, and SEIR epidemic methods. The above could mean that initially any method can be used to model the pandemic course.
RESUMEN Un nuevo coronavirus denominado primero 2019-nCoV y más tarde SARS-CoV-2 fue encontrado en Wuhan, China en diciembre de 2019. El objetivo de este trabajo es comparar tres métodos matemáticos: regresión no lineal, modelos epidemiológicos SIR y SEIR, para rastrear la enfermedad del COVID-19 en nueve países infectados por el virus SARS-CoV-2, con el propósito de ayudar al epidemiólogo a conocer el curso de la pandemia, considerando principalmente sus primeros 100 días. Para evaluar los resultados obtenidos de la aplicación de los tres métodos, se aplicó ANOVA de una vía. El número promedio de casos infectados con SARS-CoV-2, obtenidos con los tres métodos descritos son: para Estados Unidos 1,098,508, seguido de España con 226,721, Italia con 202,953, Francia con 183,897 Reino Unido con 182,190, Alemania con 159,407, Canadá con 58,696, México con 50,366 y Argentina con 4,860 en promedio. El ANOVA de una vía no muestra diferencias significativas entre los resultados de los casos infectados proyectados por SARS-CoV-2, utilizando la regresión no lineal y los métodos SIR and SEIR. Lo anterior podría señalar que cualquiera de los tres métodos estudiados puede modelar el curso de la pandemia en las condiciones descritas para cada uno.
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Objective: To estimate the overall quality characteristics of Zhenqi Fuzheng granules (ZQFZ),which were composed of Ligustri Lucidi Fructus and Astragali Radix and collected from different manufacturers (their final preparations included two types,contained sugar and sugar free) by established HPLC methods,in order to propose an appropriate quality-control strategy for promoting the quality control specification of ZQFZ.Method: The quantification of the 6 components (rhodioloside,calycosin-7-O-β-D-glucoside,specnuezhenide,ononin,calycosin and astragaloside IV) were performed on a C18 column with two chromatographic systems.Chromatographic system Ⅰ:methanol and water were adopted as mobile phase with gradient elution,the flow rate was 1.0 mL·min-1,and optimum detection waves were at 224,250 and 275 nm respectively.Chromatographic system Ⅱ:methanol and water (80:20) were adopted as mobile phase with gradient elution at the flow rate of 1.0 mL·min-1,and the detector parameters were set as follows:the drift tube temperature was 75℃,and the carrier gas flow rate was 1.5 L·min-1.Both column temperatures were at 30℃.All of the 80 batches of ZQFZ from different manufacturers were determined and analyzed.Result: All of the six markers could be detected in 80 batches of ZQFZ,but their contents were quite different.The results of the one-way ANOVA showed significant differences between manufacturer 4 and other three manufacturers in sugar-containing preparations (P PConclusion: It is of great significance to increase relevant quality control markers of Ligustri Lucidi Fructus in ZQFZ,such as rhodioloside and specnuezhenide,for standardizing production and improving quality level.
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Objective: HPLC was used to determine the content of the polyphyllins VII, H, VI, II, III, I, and V in the rhizomes of multiple stems Paris polyphylla var. yunnanenesis from different places of origin, establishing HPLC fingerprint and comparative analysis HPLC fingerprint between multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis and P. polyphylla var. yunnanensis. Methods: HPLC was performed on the column of Thermore C18 with mobile phase of acetonitrile-water gradient at the flow rate of 1 mL/min; The detection wave-length was 203 nm, column temperature was 30 ℃, and volume was 10 μL; Content of multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis. was measured by external standard and quantitative analysis of multi-components (QAMS), and one-way ANOVA was used to explore its content difference. The HPLC fingerprint of rhizome from multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis was established and compared with that of rhizome from P. polyphylla var. yunnanensis. Results: The determination results of 10 batches of rhizome of multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesIs showed a good linear relationship in the linear range (r > 0.999 7), with an average recovery of 98.34%-99.34% and RSD ≦ 1.00%. There was a significant difference (P < 0.05) or highly significant difference (P < 0.01) about content of polyphyllins VII, H, VI, II, III, I, and V among different places of origin in the rhizomes of multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis, the total content of polyphyllins (I+ II + VI + VII)% ranging from 1.239%-6.236%, which was significantly higher than 0.60% of the quality control standard of Paridis Rhizoma prescribed by Chinese Pharmacopoeia. No significant difference was observed between the results of external standard and quantitative analysis of multi-components methods. The HPLC fingerprint similarity evaluation results showed that there were 12 common fingerprint peaks between multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis and P. polyphylla var. yunnanensis, and with the high similarity of HPLC fingerprints. Conclusion: The method was simple, accurate and reproducible, and can be used for the determination of polyphyllins VII, H, VI, II, III, I, and V in multiple stems of P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis, total content of polyphyllins (I + II + VI + VII)% in multiple stems of P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis was relatively higher and HPLC fingerprints of rhizome of multiple stems P. polyphylla var. yunnanenesis and P. polyphylla var. yunnanensis from different places of origin also have high similarity.
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Objective To observe the effects of four kinds of extracts of Crataegi Folium on hemorheology, erythrocytes, platelets, coagulation time, and other indicators of 27 indicators in blood stasis rats from the aspects of whole and local double aspects by using the combination method of principal component and one-way ANOVA, and analysis of indicators contained in the information, in order to provide new analytical ideas for the mechanism of Crataegi Folium extract on activating blood and resolving stasis. Methods Forty-eight wistar rats were randomly divided into blank group, model group, and drug group. Blood stasis model was prepared by using adrenaline in ice water bath. Both blank group and model group were given normal saline, and drug group was given hawthorn leaves extract aqueous solution. Blood samples were collected and 27 indicators such as hemorheology, erythrocyte, platelet, and prothrombin time were selected. The principal component analysis (PCA) was used to decompose all the index data by dimensionless treatment and dimensionality reduction, and then the principal components were generated. The new variables (ie, principal component scores) were subsequently analyzed by one-way ANOVA. The results combined with the contribution rate of principal components and the correlation coefficient of each index was analyzed. Finally, the index groups and individual indexes in each group were analyzed synthetically, and the regularity conclusions were drawn. Results Eight principal components were extracted by principal component analysis, and the contribution rate was 77.992%. The results of theprincipal component analysis combined with the ANOVA showed that nine main components in the first principal component could replace the original 27 indicators to reflect the effect of Crataegi Folium extract on blood circulation and blood stasis, namely FIB, total number of red blood cells, total platelet count platelet volume, platelet count, blood viscosity at low shear rate, blood viscosity at middle shear rate, blood viscosity at high shear rate, and plasma viscosity. The results showed that the effects of the four extracts of Crataegi Folium on the index components were different. Conclusion The effect of activating blood and resolving stasis is mainly by reducing blood viscosity and plasma viscosity, promoting hemoglobin degradation and increasing the number of platelets, shortening the blood clotting and so on to achieve.
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Geo-authentic habitats of Angelica Sinensis can be deduced from antiquity herbal literature's point of view. To provide basis for quality evaluation of Angelica Sinensis, this article summarized modern achievements in scientific research. To conclude genuine habitats of Angelica Sinensis, the related description of Geo-authentic habitats in ancient materia were reviewed and tested. Professional search strategy on traits and chemical characteristics of Angelica Sinensis were made to retrieve relevant literature in the CNKI database, and then the date on pharmacognostic characteristics and chemical component of crude drug from different origins were refined, and at last the date were comprehensively evaluated by Analysis of Variance, principal component and cluster analysis. and Conclusion Fourteen ancient books and one book of recent time were looked up on Herbalogical study. On this basis, twenty-six ancient origins were refined.Eight corresponding modern origins were finded through locating the place these medicines of dynasties in modern map.Combined with Frequency statistical results of modern origins and the related description of Geo-authentic habitats in ancient materia, genuine habitats of Angelica Sinensis were concluded. They are Gansu and Sichuan provinces. 75 literatures on traits and 1949 literatures on chemical characteristics of Angelica Sinensis were retrieved. The pharmacognostic characteristics of Angelica Sinensis were sumerized according to the traits. date. The results of ANOVA indicate that there exists significant difference in the quality of the samples in Gansu and Yunnan provinces among 6 different origins of Angelica Sinensis. Three principal components whose accumulated variance contribution rate was over90.641％ were obtained. Based on these principal components, samples of Angelica Sinensis from the different planting areas were clustered into three groups by within-groups linkage cluster methods. The results show that Gansu province was the best among 10 habitats. Sichuan, Yunnan Hubei, and Hubei Province were better than others habitats. The result is quite consistent with the genuine habitats of Angelica Sinensis, which is obtained from the textual research on ancient materia. The results obtained in this study can be used as references for evaluating the quality of Dao-di herbs Angelica Sinensis scientifically.